Market
Memos from Howard Marks: Nobody Knows (Yet Again)Markets have had a bumpy ride so far in 2025, with heightened volatility due to uncertainty around the economic impact of higher tariffs and trade conflicts. The S&P 500 fell more than 18% between February and April in anticipation of and following Trump’s tariff announcement, and is down -4.93% for the year, as of April 30, 2025. At the same time, trade war uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for markets going forward.
While credit hasn’t been immune to the turmoil, it has helped investors insulate their portfolios from these shocks. Year-to-date through April 30, U.S. high yield bonds and senior loans are up 0.95% and 0.55%, respectively1 with attractive yields around 8%.
Source: Bloomberg, as of April 30, 2025. U.S. High Yield Bonds represented by the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index; U.S. Leveraged Loans represented by the S&P UBS Leveraged Loan Index; Equities represented by S&P 500 Index.
There are several factors that help explain why credit can help strengthen portfolios during volatile markets relative to equities:2
We believe alternative credit remains a compelling option for income-seeking investors whose return targets align with the high-single digit yields we are observing today.
1 Represented by the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index, the S&P UBS Leveraged Loan Index, and the S&P 500 Index, respectively.
2 Risk factors that may negatively impact yield expectations include fees, liquidity differences, tax treatment, default risk and recovery rates.
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