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Memos from Howard Marks: Cockroaches in the Coal MineOperational expertise can help shift AI from targeted applications to a scalable efficiency and growth driver.
Global technology leaders are now committing trillions of dollars to develop Al tools designed to transform industries, drive scientific breakthroughs and integrate digital assistants into daily life. We believe that Al-led automation could add up to $10 trillion in global gross domestic product (GDP) over the next decade.1
Industrial companies are positioned to benefit enormously from this megatrend, offering compelling opportunities for implementing Al upgrades to decades-old technology that could dramatically improve productivity. While Al has helped industrials achieve modest efficiency gains so far, the next value creation phase will require embedding more sophisticated agentic Al into core operations-and eventually physical Al tools such as humanoid robots-along with adopting a system-wide approach across workflows to further enhance efficiency and eventually expand revenue and margins.
In private equity, success with Al will not be determined by who has access to the most advanced algorithms. It will be defined by who can successfully drive transformational change management, while embedding those capabilities into workflows in ways that generate measurable value for portfolio companies and returns for investors (see Figure 1). And it will require not only capital, but also deep operational expertise. In other words, it takes industry to turn potential into results.
Figure 1: Al Offers Enormous Opportunities to Create Long-Term Value
Along with robotics, automated manufacturing and deglobalization trends, Al is contributing to the reindustrialization of the U.S. and Western Europe-what some are calling the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Despite rapid progress, the gap between Al's potential and realized business value in this sector remains wide. Recent studies show that only a small minority of industrial companies have achieved their Al performance targets.2
While industrials stand to benefit disproportionately from Al, barriers remain high. Unlike software businesses, industrial companies often operate with legacy infrastructure, analog workflows and decentralized decision-making. Embedding Al into these operations is not a plug-and-play exercise. It demands operational expertise, deep sector knowledge and the ability to redesign how work gets done.
In a manufacturing plant, for example, predictive maintenance is only the beginning. Al can also optimize production scheduling, manage energy consumption and coordinate complex supplier networks in real time. In logistics, Al enables dynamic routing, adaptive warehousing and demand forecasting. In industrial services, companies can deploy Al to anticipate client needs, automate safety monitoring and personalize offerings.
Because industrial companies traditionally have grown in line with or slightly above GDP, they tend to trade at lower multiples than high-growth technology companies. This often makes them attractive investment candidates for private equity operators with a track record of creating value through operational expertise. Far from being a disruptive force, Al tools have the potential to significantly enhance productivity and accelerate earnings growth at industrials without having to pay a premium multiple.
Private equity's ownership model also allows for long-term investments and quick decision-making in process redesign, workforce training, technology and data integration across silos-tasks that are often harder to implement in public companies.
Al is poised to become the most impactful general-purpose technology in history, but only if it is accompanied by a buildout of the necessary capital-intensive physical infrastructure to support its adoption.
The most impactful adoption of Al occurs with system-level solutions that create value by holistically improving multiple, interdependent processes. Employing autonomous agents has the potential to transform Al from a reactive assistant into a proactive, value-generating collaborator. As technology advances, modular agents with specific responsibilities will be able to connect and communicate with one another through their own network.(Agentic Al systems can plan, strategize and execute tasks independently, often adapting to changing conditions.)
This distinction can be illustrated through three hypothetical plants, each approaching Al differently (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: From Point- to System-Level Solutions—And Beyond
The first plant pursues a point solution, using Al-powered sensors installed on individual machines to predict when each one needs maintenance.
The second plant adopts an application solution, implementing predictive maintenance sensors on multiple machines and linking them to the plant's inventory and parts-ordering department. This solution keeps the right parts in stock when repairs are needed but does not fundamentally redefine the production process.
The third plant takes a system-level approach. In addition to implementing Al sensors on machines, management redesigns operations across its entire fleet of plants and adjusts production schedules based on Al-generated maintenance reports. It requires coordinating inventory and supply chains through connected agentic Al systems, retraining workers and refining key performance indicators. The result is reduced downtime and enhanced throughput, flexibility and efficiency.
When these autonomous Al agents interact, a machine showing early signs of wear could trigger an Al decision-making cascade: production slows, replacement parts are pre-ordered, delivery is optimized and work shifts are updated-all with minimal human intervention. While this vision is still developing, it underscores how Al's future will move beyond task automation toward coordinated, system-level orchestration that creates enormous value.
System-level solutions require businesses to redesign core processes, workflows and even business models to fully capture Al's potential. While such transformations are harder to execute, they are also where the largest competitive advantages lie.
Figure 3: The AI Revolution: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
Brookfield recently partnered with humanoid robot developer Figure Al to help the company:
Recognizing Al's growing ability to enhance operations, we have established an Al Value Creation Office to drive Brookfield's Al strategy, including prioritizing projects, tracking results and sharing lessons learned to avoid common pitfalls. Combined with a global platform spanning renewable power generation, data centers and venture partnerships, the effect is a multiplier: Lessons learned in one business can be adapted and scaled in another, accelerating adoption and amplifying results.
Brookfield's strength is its capacity to drive organizational change. We partner with portfolio companies at any stage of their Al journey, embedding the capabilities needed to accelerate transformation.
The office is tracking and managing more than 800 use cases, including those at these two industrial companies:
While Clarios and Chemelex are key examples of expanding beyond point solutions and leveraging advanced technology and Al to create system-level change, this approach can be applied to businesses in many other sectors.
Al's impact on industrials is primarily enhancing productivity and innovation rather than transforming business models. This means Al implementation does not change Brookfield's core value-creation levers-growth, efficiency, and optimizing costs and capital-it simply accelerates these strategies to deliver faster, cheaper and lower-risk outcomes that can drive revenue and margin expansion.
We believe that implementing Al tools today can ensure that companies realize Al's full potential tomorrow, positioning them to play a leading role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Access to algorithms is important, but the real differentiator will be the ability to re-engineer workflows, align people and modernize systems so that Al can scale rapidly when capabilities mature.
Along with operational know-how with industry-leading access to the technology value chain, Al can evolve from a tool of incremental efficiency into a driver of lasting transformation-unlocking growth, resilience and long-term advantages for investors and portfolio companies alike.
Endnotes:
1 International Data Corporation, "The Business Opportunity of Al," November 2023.
2 World Economic Forum in collaboration with Boston Consulting Group. "Harnessing the Revolution in Industrial Operations: A Guidebook," Oct. 2023.
3 McKinsey and Company, "Seizing the agentic AI advantage," Jun.13, 2025.
4 Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb, "Power, and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence;' Harvard Business Review Press, Nov,15, 2022.
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