Market
Memos from Howard Marks: Cockroaches in the Coal MineThe PE landscape heading into the fourth quarter of 2025 and then 2026 is best described as a mixture of challenges and opportunities. Here’s what to know:
Crosscurrents are evident. Tariff headlines and uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path have cooled sentiment, after a strong start to the year. Exits remain uneven, and fundraising is subdued as LPs manage distribution backlogs. Much of the capital raised continues to flow to larger, established managers—an ongoing flight to quality.
Financing tailwinds offer some balance. Leveraged loan spreads have tightened to levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis (Figure 7). New B/B+ loans are pricing near SOFR+285, with many trading above par. Because debt is the primary funding source for PE transactions, this matters directly: lower spreads reduce interest expense, strengthen free cash flow and extend maturities.
Figure 7: Leveraged Loan Spreads Have Tightened to Levels Not Seen Since Before the Global Financial Crisis
Cheaper financing also supports new M&A by improving the feasibility of acquisitions, while giving buyers more confidence to transact. For existing portfolios, easier credit conditions can help unlock exit activity as sponsors and strategic acquirers regain financing capacity.
Lower borrowing costs don’t just improve balance sheets—they create the conditions for more active deal flow and can help restart exits.
Discipline at entry still drives the outcome. PitchBook data highlights that entry valuation is closely linked to how quickly investments can be realized. Companies acquired at lower multiples have exited at materially higher rates than those bought at premium valuations (Figure 8).
As exit markets begin to thaw, lower-valued deals are the ones most likely to transact first, returning capital to investors earlier. Higher-multiple deals, by contrast, often require longer holding periods or more creative structures to exit.
Disciplined entry pricing strengthens the foundation of an investment and improves the ability to distribute capital sooner when liquidity windows reopen.
Figure 8: “Buy Low, Sell High” Strategy May Provide Better Exit Opportunities
History shows the importance of timing across cycles. Preqin data on PE fund returns reveal a consistent pattern: the strongest outcomes occur when interest rates are falling—not just low, but declining (Figure 9).
Deals completed in the early 1990s, early 2000s, after 2009, and post-2020 all fit this trend. Falling rates give a double boost: cheaper financing improves cash flow, while lower discount rates lift exit multiples. The combination magnifies outcomes for capital deployed into dislocated but recovering markets.
Figure 9: Strong Historical PE Performance Amid Falling Interest Rates
As Q4 2025 unfolds, financing conditions are improving, and valuations are recalibrating. If further rate cuts materialize, PE deals raised during this period could benefit from the same tailwinds that powered some of PE’s strongest historical cycles. For investors with patience and discipline, the environment in late 2025 and into 2026 could potentially reward long-term positioning.
Read more in our Alts Quarterly Q4 2025.
A WORD ABOUT RISK
As an asset class, private credit comprises a large variety of different debt instruments. While each has its own risk and return profile, private credit assets generally have increased risk of default, due o their typical opportunistic focus on companies with limited funding options, in comparison with their public equivalents. Because private credit usually involves lending to below-investment-grade credit assets is increased in return for taking on increased risk.
Investments in real estate-related instruments may be affected by economic, legal or environmental factors that affect property values, rents or occupancies of real estate.
Infrastructure companies may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business, including high interest costs, high leverage, regulation costs, economic slowdown, surplus capacity, increased competition, lack of fuel availability and energy conservation policies.
Alternative investments often are speculative and include a high degree of risk. Investors could lose all or a substantial amount of their investment. High-yield bonds are subject to interest-rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally, the longer a bond’s maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Yields are subject to change with economic conditions. Yield is only one factor that should be considered when making an investment decision.
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KEY TERMS AND INDEX DEFINITIONS
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index comprising globally traded investment-grade bonds. The index includes government securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and corporate securities to simulate the universe of bonds in the market. The maturities of the bonds in the index are more than one year.
Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high-yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.
Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) seeks to measure the unlevered, gross-of-fee performance of U.S. middle-market corporate loans, as represented by the asset-weighted performance of the underlying assets of business development companies (BDCs), including both exchange-traded and unlisted BDCs, subject to certain eligibility requirements.
FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Real Estate Index is an unmanaged market-capitalization- weighted total-return index that consists of publicly traded equity REITs and listed property companies from developed markets.
FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index gives participants an industry-defined interpretation of infrastructure and adjusts the exposure to certain infrastructure subsectors.
The constituent weights are adjusted as part of the semi-annual review according to three broad industry sectors: 50% Utilities; 30% Transportation, including capping of 7.5% for railroads/railways; and a 20% mix of other sectors including pipelines, satellites and telecommunication towers. Company weights within each group are adjusted in proportion to their investable market capitalization.
Green Street Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) is a time series index published by Green Street, which tracks the value of U.S. commercial real estate properties. The index is based on transaction prices and appraisals of institutional-quality properties across major sectors, including office, industrial, retail and multifamily. It is widely used as a benchmark for changes in commercial property values over time.
ICE BofA Single-B U.S. High Yield Index tracks the performance of USD-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market, including all securities with a given investment-grade rating of B.
ICE BofA U.S. Convertibles Index tracks the performance of convertible bonds in the U.S.
ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index measures the performance of USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds.
J.P. Morgan CLO Post-Crisis BB Index is a subset of the J.P. Morgan CLO index that only tracks the BB-rated CLO.
J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets High Yield Bond Index tracks liquid, U.S.-dollar emerging market fixed- and floating-rate debt instruments issued by corporate, sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities.
MSCI World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets.
Nasdaq Index is a market-cap-weighted index tracking companies traded on the Nasdaq stock market.
Preqin Infrastructure Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private infrastructure portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
Preqin Private Equity Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private equity portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
Preqin Real Estate Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private real estate portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
S&P 500 Index is a market-cap-weighted equity index of 500 widely held, large-capitalization U.S. companies.
S&P UBS Leveraged Loan Index measures the market-value-weighted performance of the investable universe of USD-denominated leveraged loans.
Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, SOFR is based on actual transactions in the U.S. Treasury repurchase (repo) market and is considered a reliable benchmark for short-term interest rates. SOFR has replaced LIBOR as the preferred reference rate for many financial contracts.
World Bank Global Supply Chain Stress Index (GSCSI) is an indicator developed by the World Bank to measure disruptions and stress in global supply chains. The index aggregates data on container shipping volumes, costs and delays, providing a quantitative assessment of supply chain bottlenecks and their impact on global trade. It is used to monitor trends and shocks affecting international logistics and manufacturing.
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