The combination of heightened volatility, weakening investor sentiment, and falling equity markets resulting from tariffs on major trading partners has the potential to translate into a slowing economy, particularly within the service sector. This could have a significant impact across investment sectors. While the impact may only be indirect on the real estate sector, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs underscores the importance of operating skill when selecting a real estate manager, in order to achieve strong performance in a volatile market.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Impact

Tariffs could lead to reduced overall spending and slowing economic growth, since the costs are usually passed on to consumers. Of course, much depends on how long those tariffs are left in place and whether key industries are able to secure exemptions. The flow of goods and consumer spending are key drivers of demand for industrial and retail space, and lower demand would potentially impact leasing in these real estate sectors. Higher inflation triggered by the tariffs could also have an impact on borrowing costs to finance real estate investment—which may lead to increases in distressed acquisition opportunities from undercapitalized, motivated sellers.

While tariffs are generally viewed as having negative economic impacts, there are a number of potential positive effects on the real estate market they can provide, including a shift in investment toward real estate due to the inherent characteristics of the asset class. Higher inflation has positive benefits for real estate. Rents often rise with inflationary expectations, sometimes even in excess of inflation. In addition, the value of real estate assets tends to increase as replacement costs rise. Over the long term, tariffs should also yield positive results for real estate, particularly if they translate to an increase in domestic manufacturing activity and employment. This would likely lead to increased demand for real estate sectors accommodating manufacturing, such as logistics. Onshoring trends led to an average annual increase of 50% year-over-year in real estate requirements since 2020, and the trend is expected to continue.¹

Despite Uncertainty, a Positive Outlook

Despite the uncertain environment, commercial real estate pricing should remain largely stable, given the expectation that long-term bond yields should move lower over time, and that investor sentiment improves as the year goes on. Lower yields, combined with an improving lending environment, should allow the real estate investment market to continue recovering. The figure below shows the historical relationship between real estate capitalization rates and subsequent five-year returns. Using this same calculation on a go-forward basis, there is potential to achieve an average 9.3% annual return over the next five years across all property types (2025 to 2029).²

Summing Up

The trajectory and effects of tariffs—including the dispersion of impacts shaped by a fast-changing political environment—could steer the course of inflation, economic growth and interest rates in the years ahead. Navigating that type of environment is enormously complex. Therefore, skilled, on-the-ground operating capabilities are required to maximize cash flow growth over holding periods.

During the last real estate cycle, declining cap rates contributed greatly to performance. Now, in contrast, achieving strong returns over the coming years may require a greater emphasis on successfully executing business plans with operational upside—rather than relying on financial engineering. 

Asset selection will be key as investors focus on income growth. The strength of an operational platform to streamline costs, achieve efficiencies of scale and drive improvements will similarly be critical in securing incremental returns. In short, the value of a hands-on operating approach is vital to driving cash flows despite market dynamics.

Read more in our Alts Quarterly Q2 2025.

ENDNOTES
1 Source: JLL, as of February 28, 2025.
2 Source: CBRE, as of March 21, 2025.

A WORD ABOUT RISK
As an asset class, private credit comprises a large variety of different debt instruments. While each has its own risk and return profile, private credit assets generally have increased risk of default, due to their typical opportunistic focus on companies with limited funding options, in comparison with their public equivalents.

Because private credit usually involves lending to below-investment-grade or non-rated issuers, yield on private credit assets is increased in return for taking on increased risk.

Investments in real estate-related instruments may be affected by economic, legal or environmental factors that affect property values, rents or occupancies of real estate. Infrastructure companies may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business, including high interest costs, high leverage, regulation costs, economic slowdown, surplus capacity, increased competition, lack of fuel availability and energy conservation policies.

Alternative investments often are speculative and include a high degree of risk. Investors could lose all or a substantial amount of their investment. High-yield bonds are subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally, the longer a bond’s maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Yields are subject to change with economic conditions. Yield is only one factor that should be considered when making an investment decision. 

The information in this publication is not and is not intended as investment advice, an indication of trading intent or holdings, or prediction of investment performance. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Views and information expressed herein are subject to change at any time. Brookfield disclaims any responsibility to update such views and/or information. This information is deemed to be from reliable sources; however, Brookfield does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. 

Opinions expressed herein are current opinions of Brookfield, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, and are subject to change without notice. Brookfield, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, assumes no responsibility to update such information or to notify clients of any changes. Any outlooks, forecasts or portfolio weightings presented herein are as of the date appearing on this material only and are also subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and the value of investments and the income derived from those investments can fluctuate.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
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The information provided herein reflects Brookfield’s perspectives and beliefs as of the date of this commentary. 

INDEX PROVIDER DISCLAIMER
The quoted indexes within this publication are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment. There may be material factors relevant to any such comparison, such as differences in volatility and also regulatory and legal restrictions between the indexes shown and any investment in a Brookfield strategy, composite or fund. 

Brookfield obtained all index data from third-party index sponsors and believes the data to be accurate; however, Brookfield makes no representation regarding its accuracy. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Brookfield does not own or participate in the construction or day-to-day management of the indexes referenced in this document. The index information provided is for your information only and does not imply or predict that a Brookfield product will achieve similar results. This information is subject to change without notice. The indexes referenced in this document do not reflect any fees, expenses, sales charges or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The index sponsors permit use of their indexes and related data on an “as is” basis, make no warranties regarding the same, do not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness and/or completeness of their index or any data included in, related to or derived therefrom, and assume no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing. The index sponsors have no liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential or other damages (including loss of profits). The index sponsors do not sponsor, endorse or recommend Brookfield or any of its products or services. Unless otherwise noted, all indexes are total-return indexes.

INDEX DEFINITIONS
Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) seeks to measure the unlevered, gross-of-fee performance of U.S. middle-market corporate loans, as represented by the asset-weighted performance of the underlying assets of business development companies (BDCs), including both exchange-traded and unlisted BDCs, subject
to certain eligibility requirements.

EURO STOXX 50 Index, Europe’s leading blue-chip index for the eurozone, provides a blue-chip representation of super sector leaders in the region.

FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Real Estate Index is an unmanaged market capitalization- weighted total-return index that consists of publicly traded equity REITs and listed property companies from developed markets. 

FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index gives participants an industry-defined interpretation of infrastructure and adjusts the exposure to certain infrastructure subsectors. The constituent weights are adjusted as part of the semi-annual review according to three broad industry sectors: 50% Utilities; 30% Transportation, including capping of 7.5% for railroads/railways; and a 20% mix of other sectors including pipelines, satellites and telecommunication towers. Company weights within each group are adjusted in proportion to their investable market capitalization. 

ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index tracks the performance of U.S.-dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. 

The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Global High Yield European Issuers Non-Financial 3% Constrained Ex Russia Index is a sub-index that contains all securities in the broader index except those from financial issuers or with Russia as their country of risk but caps issuer exposure at 3%. The index is rebalanced monthly. The index is USD hedged. 

Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index is a market-value-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the U.S. leveraged loan market. 

MSCI World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. 

Nasdaq Index is a market-cap-weighted index tracking companies traded on the Nasdaq stock market. Preqin Infrastructure Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private infrastructure portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter. 

Preqin Private Equity Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private equity portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.

Preqin Real Estate Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private real estate portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter. 

S&P 500 Index is a market-cap-weighted equity index of 500 widely held, large-capitalization U.S. companies.